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Portfolio Analysis: Calculating Risk and Returns

Portfolio Analysis - Calculating Risk and Returns

Introduction

The process of trading is a complex one with a number of steps like stocks selection, the formation of strategies, and creation of a portfolio and so on. Here, we will focus on one such step which is computing the expected returns and variances for a portfolio having n number of stocks.

Expected return on a single stock

The expected return of a portfolio provides an estimate of how much return one can get from their portfolio. And variance gives the estimate of the risk that an investor is taking while holding that portfolio. The returns and the risk of the portfolio depending on the returns and risks of the individual stocks and their corresponding shares in the portfolio.

The parameters of the risk and return of any stock explicitly belong to that particular stock, however, the investor can adjust the return to risk ratio of his/ her portfolio to the desired level using certain measures. One such measure is to adjust the weights of the stocks in the investors’ portfolio.

Here we will discuss how the weights of individual stocks impact these two parameters of the portfolio. Consider a stock ABC. Let ri be the expected return on the stock and rx be any return having a probability of px. The expected return, ri, can be computed using the below equation.

expected return equation

Let us assume that ABC can generate the returns as per column A with corresponding probabilities given in column B. The expected return from ABC can be computed as shown in column C, which is the product of columns A and B.

expected return

Let us look at the code to compute the expected return of this stock. We start by importing the pandas library.

import pandas

code to compute the expected return of stock

The expected return on the stock is 8.10% as per the calculations shown above. The returns in column A can be computed using Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

Risk (or variance) on a single stock

The variance of the return on stock ABC can be calculated using the below equation.

Variance of the return on stock

The following table gives the computation of the variance using the same example above.

computation of the variance

We can compute the variance of the single stock using python as:

compute the variance of the single stock

Hence, the variance of return of the ABC is 6.39. The standard deviation of the returns can be calculated as the square root of the variance.

standard deviation of the returns

Having computed the expected return and variance for the stock, we will now see how to calculate the return and variance of the portfolio. We use the expected return and variance of the portfolio to optimize it. We can adjust the weights of the stocks to maximize the return and minimize the standard deviation.

Expected return on an n-stock portfolio

Let us take an n-stock portfolio. Assume that the expected return from ith stock is ri. The expected return on the portfolio will then be:

n-stock portfolio

The weight of any stock is the ratio of the amount invested in that stock to the total amount invested. For the below portfolio, the weights are shown in the table.

weight of stock

Let us see how we can compute the weights using python for this portfolio.

compute the weights using python

The sum of the weights of all the stocks in the portfolio will always be 1. Next, we will see the expected return on this portfolio.

expected return on the portfolio


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